This is a very important topic that should interest all leaders who are interested in opening up their business internationally. MLM is the same as all traditional businesses and no businessperson should go into a market without having a rough idea what that new market can produce.
30 plus years ago when I joined Amway she was doing US$1 billion a year in the USA and Canada. (Note. I am no longer with Amway) I have therefore used what Amway did to estimate the market potential for all markets that I want to build. The population of USA and Canada combine is around 300 million. So when you divide US$1 Billion with 300 million, this equals about US$3,000,000 per million a year.
However, your must not forget
1. Amway is Amway, the number 1 company in the world today.
2. You must also take into consideration the number of products sold by the company.
3. The marketing skill, spirit and culture of a company. You can see how good a company is in this area by checking how well the company is doing in the country of origin or in their matured markets. Do not just get excited by success of a company in a new market that is experiencing explosive growth. Check how they are doing in their old markets. Good companies must boom and maintain in all matured markets not boom and burst like I normally see today.
4. The GNP of the country. To say the Cuba can do as well as the USA per million maybe a dangerously wrong estimate.
You can therefore choose the following for a rough estimate.
1. US$3,000,000 per million.
2. US$2,500,000 per million.
3. US$2,000,000 per million.
4. US$1,500,000 per million.
5. US$1,000,000 per million.
6. US$500,000 per million.
7. US$250,000 per million.
Let us say a good company like Amway opens up in China. (As a MLM company) And because China being so vast with a population of 1.3 billion and we decide to use say US$1 million per million, this is the market estimate.
1.3 billion is 1300 million x 1,000,000 per million = US$1.3 billion per year or about US$100 million in sale a month.
Let us take another American company also granted a license in China but this company has less products and are weak in marketing (Always remember to check how well the company is doing in the country of origin or their matured markets and this will give you a rough idea how strong the company is in marketing) and we decide to use US$200,000 per million. This will be the rough estimation for this company.
1.3 billion is 1300 million x 200,000 per million = US$260 million per year or about US$20 million in sale a month.
Again we use Amway and the market is Singapore and the population is only 5 million but it is a rich country so we decide to use US$3,000,000 per million. This will be the rough estimation Amway may do in Singapore.
5,000.000 x US$3,000,000 = US$15 million per year or about US$1.2 million per month in sales.
It is therefore important for you to know the population and GNP of a country before going there to open your international market. If your company opens up in a small island in the Pacific ocean with a population of only 300,000 and the GNP is very low and we estimate the market to only do US$100,000 per million, my advise is don't go.